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The rule that moved Nvidia H200 class chips from presumption of denial to case-by-case review for China and Macau applies only to exports from the United States, and leaves the denial presumption standing on reexports, in-country transfers and any buyer with a Chinese or Macau parent
Back-coverage, not news: this rule took effect on 15 January 2026 and we are covering it because our export-control reporting had no foundation under it. The reason it is worth reading now is that its operative text is considerably narrower than its own summary.
Bottom line: A binding final rule, effective 15 January 2026, the day it was published. It changes the licence review policy for a defined band of AI accelerators from presumption of denial to case-by-case, for exports from the United States to China and Macau, subject to four exporter certifications.
Who this affects: Export control counsel at semiconductor and server vendors, compliance teams at cloud and hardware distributors, and anyone modelling lawful routes for AI accelerators into China or Macau.
Issue date: Effective 15 January 2026, published the same day as Federal Register document 2026-00789. This is a January rule, covered here in August.
What changed: For advanced computing commodities below both technical thresholds, a licence application can move from presumption of denial to case-by-case review. The presumption of denial survives everywhere else the rule touches.
Analysis: The summary says the policy is changing from presumption of denial to case-by-case review. The operative discussion says that applies to exports from the United States destined to China or Macau, and then preserves the denial presumption for reexports, for in-country transfers, and for any end user with a parent headquartered in Macau or Country Group D:5. Read only the summary and you would misdescribe the rule.
Primary sources: Final rule, 2026-00789, via GPO govinfo (EN)
- Instrument (EN)
- Revision to License Review Policy for Advanced Computing Commodities
- Authority
- Bureau of Industry and Security, US Department of Commerce
- Jurisdiction
- United States, with extraterritorial reach through the EAR reexport rules
- Status
- Final rule, RIN 0694-AK43
- Bindingness
- Binding. It is a licence review policy, so it governs how BIS decides applications rather than creating a new prohibition.
- Issue date / next deadline
- Effective 15 January 2026, published the same day. No compliance deadline or sunset is stated in the rule.
- Technical scope
- Advanced computing commodities with a TPP below 21,000, as defined in Technical Note 2 to 3A090.a and 3A090.b, and total DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s. The rule names the NVIDIA H200 and the AMD MI325X as examples.
- Coverage note
- Published as back-coverage of a lane our estate did not previously cover. It is not a current development.
- Editorial Note
- Informational analysis for working professionals, not legal advice. Confirm how any rule applies to your situation with qualified counsel.
- Primary source
- https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-15/html/2026-00789.htm
A capability band, not a product list
The rule does not regulate the H200 by name in its operative scope. It defines a band: advanced computing commodities with a total processing performance below 21,000, as defined in Technical Note 2 to 3A090.a and 3A090.b, and a total DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s, as defined in the notes to paragraph (dd)(1) in supplement no. 2 to part 748.
The NVIDIA H200 and the AMD MI325X appear as examples of parts that fall inside it, and the rule extends to less advanced chips as well. That drafting matters for anyone doing product classification, because it means the answer for a given accelerator is arithmetic against two thresholds rather than a lookup against a list of model names. A part that clears either ceiling is outside the relief entirely.
The rule also conditions the relief on the semiconductors being commercially available in the United States at the time of publication, which ties the band to the market as it stood in January 2026 rather than to whatever ships later.
Four certifications, and what they are actually about
Moving an application from presumption of denial to case-by-case review requires the exporter to certify, with supporting data, on four points. Three of them are not about the buyer at all.
The exporter must certify that there is sufficient supply of the product in the United States, and that producing it for export to China will not divert global foundry capacity away from similar or more advanced products destined for end users in the United States. Those are domestic-supply conditions: the licence turns partly on the state of the US market, which is not a fact about the transaction or the customer.
The remaining two are conventional: that the recipient has demonstrated sufficient security procedures, and that the item undergoes independent third-party testing in the United States to verify its performance specifications. The testing condition is the one that gives the thresholds teeth, since it puts verification of the TPP and bandwidth numbers in the hands of a US third party rather than the exporter's own datasheet.
The rule adds that where an application meets the criteria of more than one licensing policy, this policy and its requirements apply.
What the easing does not reach
This is the part that a reader of the summary alone would get wrong, and it is why we thought the rule worth covering late rather than not at all.
The case-by-case route is available for exports from the United States destined to China or Macau. For reexports, including exports from abroad, and for transfers within a country, of AI commodities subject to the EAR inside the same technical band, when destined to Macau or a destination specified in Country Group D:5, the licensing policy remains a presumption of denial.
Separately, the rule maintains a presumption of denial for exports to entities that are headquartered, or have a parent company headquartered, in Macau or a Country Group D:5 destination. That applies expressly to end users located outside D:5 or Macau. So corporate parentage follows the buyer across borders: shipping to a subsidiary in a permissive jurisdiction does not escape the presumption if the parent sits in the wrong place.
Taken together, the relief is a single channel, from US soil, to a directly qualifying end user, with four certifications attached. Everything around that channel keeps the prior policy.
Why we are publishing a January rule in August
We covered the BIS rule on enhanced favourable treatment for the United Arab Emirates, and in writing it found the same shape: a headline that reads as opening, and operative text that preserves the control and carves out a narrow, conditional route. In the UAE rule the gate is a named-entity list. Here it is a capability band plus four certifications and a hard stop at reexports.
That pattern is the useful thing, and it is not visible from either rule alone. Our estate had no coverage of AI export control at all before this week, which meant the UAE piece had no foundation under it. This fills that gap rather than reporting a development.
We are labelling it as back-coverage rather than presenting a seven-month-old rule as news, and readers should treat the date accordingly.
What we did not verify
We fetched the rule from the Government Publishing Office's govinfo service and read it: 32,709 bytes, clean decode, no replacement characters. Every provision described above was located in that text, including in the operative discussion rather than only in the summary.
We checked whether the rule has been superseded and did not find a later BIS rule disturbing it. A search of Federal Register documents from that agency published after 15 January 2026 returned no document mentioning the H200, and the only later advanced-computing rule touching China was the UAE rule of 14 July 2026. Amendments to section 742.6 since January concern drones, sound suppressors and integrated-circuit designer status. That is a bounded check, not a guarantee: BIS also acts through guidance and licensing practice, which we did not search, so we cannot state that current administrative practice matches the rule as written.
We did not open supplement no. 2 to part 748, Technical Note 2 to 3A090, or any classification guidance, so the threshold definitions are described as the rule cites them rather than as text we have read. We did not verify the technical specifications of any named product, and we make no claim that a particular accelerator does or does not fall inside the band.
We did not verify whether any licence has been granted or denied under this policy. The rule creates a review posture, not an outcome, and we found no data on how applications have actually been decided.
If you are mapping lawful routes for AI accelerators into China or Macau, the only door this rule opens is an export from the United States to a qualifying end user, on four certifications, for parts under both the 21,000 TPP and 6,500 GB/s bandwidth ceilings. Reexports and in-country transfers stay on presumption of denial, and so does any buyer whose parent is headquartered in Macau or Country Group D:5. Two of the four certifications are about US domestic supply rather than about your customer, so the licence depends partly on market conditions you do not control.
Source File
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-15/html/2026-00789.htm
Open the govinfo page for FR document 2026-00789 and confirm three things: the DATES line giving an effective date of January 15, 2026; the paragraph defining the band as TPP below 21,000 and total DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s, naming the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X; and the sentences that keep a presumption of denial for reexports and in-country transfers to Macau or Country Group D:5 and for entities with a parent headquartered there.
For reexports (including exports from abroad) and transfers (in-country) of AI commodities subject to the EAR with a TPP less than 21,000, and a `total DRAM bandwidth' less than 6,500 GB/s, when destined to either Macau or a destination specified in Country Group D:5, the licensing policy remains a presumption of denial. Bureau of Industry and Security, final rule 2026-00789, 15 January 2026
FAQ
Did this rule allow Nvidia H200 sales to China?
Only on a narrow route. It moved licence applications from presumption of denial to case-by-case review for exports from the United States to China or Macau, for parts below both technical thresholds, and only where the exporter makes four certifications. It did not lift the licence requirement.
Does the easing apply to reexports?
No. The rule states that for reexports, including exports from abroad, and for in-country transfers of AI commodities in the same band destined to Macau or a Country Group D:5 destination, the licensing policy remains a presumption of denial.
What if the customer is outside China but Chinese-owned?
The presumption of denial is maintained for exports to entities that are headquartered, or have a parent company headquartered, in Macau or a Country Group D:5 destination, including end users located outside those destinations. Corporate parentage travels with the buyer.
Which chips are covered?
The rule defines a band rather than a list: advanced computing commodities with a total processing performance below 21,000 under Technical Note 2 to 3A090.a and 3A090.b, and total DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s. It names the NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X as examples and extends to less advanced chips.
What must the exporter certify?
Four things: that there is sufficient supply of the product in the United States; that production for export to China will not divert global foundry capacity from similar or more advanced products for US end users; that the recipient has demonstrated sufficient security procedures; and that the item undergoes independent third-party testing in the United States to verify its performance specifications.
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